Nov 30 2008
More Of The Brown Stuff……..I Really Hope Not
So yesterday, we looked at why home ownership has been seen as the be-all and end-all of adult ambition However, not every society has burdened their young first-time buyers with unrealistic loan plans and consequently, unparralled levels of debt.
Home ownership sits at 72% in the UK; 68% in the USA, but barely 50% in France – so let’s take a closer look at the mathematics, the figures that realtors never tell you.
Recognising the risks of homeownership in an upturn economy wasn’t a matter of rocket science - it was simple arithmetic. The ratio of house sale prices to annual rent soared past 20 to 1 in the inflated markets, approaching 30 to 1 at one time.
Let’s say a homeowner takes out a 7% mortgage (this is of course very low for a subprime buyer), pays 1% of the value in property tax each year, and another 1% for insurance and maintenance, then ownership costs are equal to 9% of the sale price. If the house sells for 20 times its annual rent, then this family is paying 80% more in housing costs as homeowners each year than they would pay as renters. If the house were selling for 25 times the annual rent, then the family would be paying 125% more as homeowners as they would as renters – that’s the reality.
For low and medium income families who are finding it difficult to make ends meet, and pay for necessities like utility bills, food, healthcare and childcare, how are we helping them by asking them to pay 80-125% more than necessary for their housing costs?
Ah, but you are thinking, but they will accumulate equity in their home.
Erm, obviously not. They were led to believe, as we all have, that the property market will keep inflating indefinitely. Certainly, the evangelists of homeownership thought that housing prices would just keep rising forever, but this was an incredibly naïve and irresponsible thing to propagate.
So what has this all to do with Gordon Brown?
Despite suggestions to the contrary by his followers, appropriately called “Brownites” Brown has never been an economic genius: He completely misread the run-up to Black Wednesday by supporting Norman Lamont in 1992. He refused to pour calming oils on the dotcom bubble in 2000. Then he was all over the place when the ailing Railtrack finally collapsed; did not understand risk transfer under his private finance initiative, and then got into bed with Derek Wanless, known as the king of corporate spendthrifts, to totally sabotage the NHS by throwing absurd sums of money at it.
But I have to admit that nothing was more nonsensical than his handling of the housing “crisis” last spring. You see, there was no crisis, but rather a cyclical movement in house prices, largely in response to low interest rates. Median payments for first-time buyers at the time were 16.8% of income, compared with 14% in 2000, 27% in 1990, 18% in 1980 and 16% in 1975. Nothing was new (not even the hysteria).
So what did this supposedly “economic genius” do? His response was to panic. He declared his priority was to make house purchase even easier. Ownership “must be open to all those wanting to get on to the housing ladder for the first time”
To this incredibly naive extravagance he added the meaningless statement that “one of the great causes of our time…is affordable housing for all”. Amazingly, both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats agreed with him.
Companies such as Northern Rock failed to heed subsequent warnings from the Bank of England and other financial authorities. The politicians were pledged to sustain house-price inflation. The companies duly lent at seven or eight times annual income and borrowed short from other banks. They were spurred by the bonus culture that enabled dealing and sales staff to reap huge rewards from risks that their employers and shareholders - not they - would have to bear.
But of course, it has not ended there, it never does. When their employers could not fund the losses, we came the full circle and the government, Brown’s government, is bailing them out – well actually, the taxpayer is bailing them out, you and me.
According to the latest polls, the Conservatives are now a full fifteen points ahead of Labour – I hope that the electorate really have had enough of “the Brown stuff”
Tomorrow: Business as usual - we have a massive week coming up, so be sure to join me.
















